I think there’s a difference between community activity and community health.
During the first 10 years, there was a lot of noisy activity, but health waxed and waned.
During the second 10 years, it’s been a slow build of health, while noisy activity waxed and waned.
Activity
My perception is that a lot of the community activity during the first 10 years centered around various flavors and subsystems and features. After about 2018, with systemd+dbus+Gnome+snaps, much of that activity settled down. Ubuntu has been a stable platform since then, and many of the tinkerers moved on stuff they could build on top of Ubuntu instead of trying to integrate their favorite features into Ubuntu. So there are still a lot of tinkerers and contributors in the Open Source ecosystem, but they’re not as interested in the OS piece.
Loud, cool projects still come and go. Remixes/Flavors and regional UbuCons are popular right now. Ubuntu-on-air, LoCos, and Planet Ubuntu had their day…but might come again.
Health
My measure of health is community influence in the process of governance and development. It’s not a great measure, but it works for me because it’s easy to measure: Do development teams, governance boards, and the community use the same platform? Do developers see community discussion? Do they weigh in?
- If developers are active in the community, or even just monitoring regularly, that’s health. That’s success for the Discourse platform.
- If developer have fled to some other platform, and the users have an echo chamber that nobody developing Ubuntu listens to, that’s unhealthy. Platform failure.
A key community leadership change occurred here at Ubuntu Discourse. We changed from a rather noisy community-forum orientation to a much more developer-collaboration-workplace orientation. Our goal has been to keep the developers and governance boards here in the collaboration space and involved.
The reliable and robust community moderation has fostered a much healthier community (using my definition). We have a deep bench of great support volunteers. We have the constant trickle of new folks interested in various projects. We have a many Canonical and non-Canonical developers who drop by and weigh in. We are the primary place to post updates and announcements by key teams.
There are some serious health concerns. Many of our active volunteers are aging; many have been around for a decade or more. The pipeline of new volunteers is small. Not enough women participating. Not enough non-English speakers. Too few volunteers standing for elections. So I’m not ready to say that we’re healthy. We’re just healthier than we were a few years ago.